NHS waiting lists could soar to 14 million by Autumn 2022 and continue rising according to a recent report carried out by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS). 

Since the start of the pandemic, the number of people waiting for NHS treatment has grown by around 900,000; around one fifth, taking the number to over 5.3 million people. This is the highest level recorded since the current definition was introduced in 2007 and more than double the figure recorded in January 2009, when the figure stood at 2.3 million and the list was at its shortest.

The impact of the pandemic has resulted in millions of people not being able to receive care by either missing out on treatment or not being referred to join the waiting list. The report estimates that there are currently around 7 million ‘missing’ patients. These are attributed to patients who, during the pandemic, may have died, turned to private healthcare or chosen to live with their current health issues. 

The IFS has estimated that the NHS could see up to 80% of these ‘missing patients’ returning, which could increase waiting times to 9 million next year. Estimates show that the fall out of this mass return could see waiting times not returning to pre-pandemic levels until 2025. 

To accommodate this surge in demand, the NHS would need to increase its capacity by five percent over the next two years, and then by 10 percent from 2023, to keep up with demand. These efforts would be equivalent to treating 1.6 million extra patients per year at a cost of at least £2 billion.

The report stated, “Our scenarios show that, in the longer run, whether or not waiting lists remain high will ultimately be determined by what capacity the NHS can achieve in the coming years.”

Max Warner, IFS research economist, said, “More than four million people were on an NHS waiting list even before the pandemic.

“Covid has only made matters worse, as millions of people have missed out on treatment and millions more haven’t even been referred onto the waiting list to begin with.

“There is a real risk that if the NHS cannot find effective ways to boost its capacity – a challenge at the best of time, let alone a major pandemic – then much longer waiting lists will be with us for years to come.”

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Carrie Plummer - Editor & Content Manager